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Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

- Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies
Af: Jakub Bijak Engelsk Paperback

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

- Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies
Af: Jakub Bijak Engelsk Paperback
Tjek vores konkurrenters priser

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration - one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.

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This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration - one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.

Produktdetaljer
Sprog: Engelsk
Sider: 263
ISBN-13: 9783030830410
Indbinding: Paperback
Udgave:
ISBN-10: 3030830411
Udg. Dato: 10 dec 2021
Længde: 23mm
Bredde: 234mm
Højde: 155mm
Forlag: Springer Nature Switzerland AG
Oplagsdato: 10 dec 2021
Forfatter(e): Jakub Bijak
Forfatter(e) Jakub Bijak


Kategori Migration, immigration og emigration


ISBN-13 9783030830410


Sprog Engelsk


Indbinding Paperback


Sider 263


Udgave


Længde 23mm


Bredde 234mm


Højde 155mm


Udg. Dato 10 dec 2021


Oplagsdato 10 dec 2021


Forlag Springer Nature Switzerland AG

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