1. Fertility Trends in the Developing World, 1950-2020
1.1 Background
1.2 Fertility trends
1.3 Analytic Framework for the Determinants of Fertility
1.3.1 Path 1: Conventional Theories
1.3.2 Path 2: Revisionist Theories and Family Planning Programs
1.3.3 Path 3. Coercive Policies.
References
2. Country Fertility Transition Patterns
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Data
2.3 Fertility Trends
2.4 Transition Phases
2.4.1 Pre-Transition Fertility
2.4.2 Onset of Transition
2.4.3 Pace of Decline
2.4.4 The End of the Transition
2.4.5 Fertility in 2020
2.4.6 Post-Transitional Fertility
2.5 Stalled Transitions
2.6 Conclusion
References
3. Transitions in Individual Reproductive Behavior and Preferences
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Data
3.3 Contraception and its Impact on Fertility
3.3.1 Contraceptive Prevalence Trends
3.3.2 Contraceptive Use and Fertility: Cross-sectional Evidence
3.3.3 Contraceptive Use and Fertility: Longitudinal Evidence
3.4. Abortion and its Impact on Fertility
3.5. Why Contraceptive Use Rises: The Roles of Demand and Implementation.
3.6 The Reproductive Consequences of Imperfect Birth control
Appendix
References
4. Socio-economic Determinants of Fertility
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Data
4.3 Which Socio-economic Variable is the Main Driver of Fertility Transitions?
4.4 Education and Fertility Transition Patterns
4.5 Explanations of Anomalies
References
5. Controversies Surrounding Fertility Policies
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Controversies During the Pre-transition Phase, 1950-1970
5.2.1 From Transition Theory to Advocacy of Family Planning Programs
5.2.2 The Rise of a Population Control Movement
5.2.3 Fears of Famine, Failure and a Population Bomb
5.3 Controversies During the Rapid Decline Phase, 1970-2000
5.3.1 Controversy at the 1974 UN Conference on Population
5.3.2 Questions of Coercion, Reproductive Health and Reproductive Rights
5.3.3 Does Fertility Decline Promote Development? Do Family Planning Programs Promote Fertility Decline?
5.3.4 Africa and the AIDS Crisis
5.4 Conclusion
References
6. Does Fertility Decline Stimulate Development?
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Age Structure Effects of Declining Fertility
6.3 The Components of Growth in GDP per Capita
6.4 The First Demographic Dividend
6.5 The Second Demographic Dividend
6.6 Multi-sectoral Benefits from Fertility Decline
6.7 Conclusion
References
7. The Impact of Voluntary Family Planning Programs on Contraceptive Use, Fertility, and Population
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Family Planning Programs and Obstacles to the Use of Contraception
7.3 Program Impact on Contraceptive Use
7.3.1 Controlled Experiments
7.3.2 Natural Experiments
7.3.4 Natural Experiments: Adjusted Results
7.3.5 Regressions: program impact on contraceptive use, demand, and implementation
7.4 Program Impact on Fertility
7.4.1 Controlled Experiments
7.4.2 Natural Experiments
7.4.3 Natural Experiments: Adjusted Results
7.4.4 Regressions: Program Impact on Fertility
7.5 Program Impact on Population Trends
7.6 Critics of Family Planning Programs
7.7 Conclusion
References
8. The Developing World''s Fertility Tra
